CRUNCHING NUMBERS, CURBING DENGUE: MATHEMATICAL INSIGHTS INTO DISEASE TRANSMISSION IN THAILAND

Abstract

Dengue virus, prevalent in tropical and subtropical regions globally, poses a significant public health threat in areas such as South-East Asia, the Western Pacific, and Latin and Central America. Transmitted through the bites of Aedes mosquitoes, the virus comprises four serotypes: DEN1, DEN2, DEN3, and DEN4. These mosquitoes thrive in stagnant water, which can be found ubiquitously, making them formidable carriers of disease. Mosquitoes claim the dubious distinction of being the most dangerous animals on Earth, responsible for a staggering number of annual fatalities, as reported by The Washington Post in April 2014. Among the array of diseases transmitted by mosquitoes, dengue fever stands out as a global concern due to the absence of specific treatment and the lack of a readily available vaccine. Medical care, while crucial, does not consistently ensure patient survival. Consequently, the primary strategy for dengue control revolves around managing mosquito populations. In this context, mathematical modeling emerges as a vital tool for comprehensively analyzing the spread and control of infectious diseases. The utilization of mathematical models facilitates a deeper understanding of the mechanisms driving the dengue epidemic, offering insights that can inform effective control measures. This abstract underscores the urgency of addressing the dengue epidemic, emphasizing the critical role mosquitoes play in disease transmission. By highlighting the absence of a specific treatment or vaccine, it stresses the importance of alternative approaches, with a focus on controlling mosquito populations. The incorporation of mathematical modeling into this framework is essential for gaining insights into the dynamics of disease spread, thereby contributing to the development of more targeted and effective control strategies