SEASONS OF TENSION: A STATISTICAL STUDY OF CONFLICT TIMING BETWEEN FARMERS AND HERDSMEN IN BENUE STATE

Abstract

Resource conflict between farmers and herdsmen in Benue State, Nigeria, is a prevalent problem that often results in loss of lives and property. This study aims to analyze the seasonal pattern of armed conflicts between 2010 and 2019 and to assess the monthly death casualties of the conflict in Benue state. The study used data collected from secondary sources such as the Nigeria Police Force, Nigeria watch data base, and newspapers. The results showed that armed conflict occurrence reached a peak in the dry season, especially in March, followed by April and July. No armed conflict was recorded in October. The monthly conflict death was higher in the dry season than the rainy season. The factors that lead to the conflict include climate change, desert encroachment in Northern parts of Nigeria, expansion of farmland, and cattle rustling. Based on the findings, the researchers recommend the intensification of resolution mechanisms and the adoption of ranching. This study contributes to the understanding of seasonal variations in resource conflicts in Nigeria.